Though the US presidential contest for 2024 is still far from settled, indicators point to former President Donald Trump perhaps having more influence. The electoral map is starting to reflect 2016 as the night goes on, when Trump declared triumph more than 2020, when he just lost.
Which Key Wins Are Republicans Claiming in Battleground States?
Trump has demonstrated slight but notable progress across counties that have thus far reported outcomes. He is expected to win two of the seven battleground states vital to both campaigns, North Carolina and Georgia. Analysts credit Trump’s outstanding performance in usually rural areas—where he has energized support—for these successes. Early on, Trump told fans, “We’re seeing amazing energy from the heart of America tonight.” This is what it looks like to win.
Are Harris's Urban Strongholds Enough to Close the Gap?
Vice President Kamala Harris, who mostly keeps Joe Biden’s 2020 totals in urban and suburban areas, has not ultimately narrowed the difference with Trump. Although Harris’s campaign aimed to repeat Democratic successes in more populated areas, preliminary data suggest that this alone could not guarantee a victory. “We’re not counting anything out, but we need strong numbers from our base in the cities, and we’re watching these results very closely,” one campaign insider told us.
Has Harris Lost the Sun Belt, and Can the "Blue Wall" States Secure Her Victory?
Harris’s prospects suffered greatly when Trump was expected to win North Carolina, a battleground state he secured in 2020. The outcomes in North Carolina and Trump turning Georgia—a state he barely lost by just over 11,000 votes last election—raise questions inside the Harris camp. These results imply that the Sun Belt states are firmly in Trump’s advantage, depriving Harris of more routes to success.
Democrats now depend on the Great Lakes area, home to the so-called Democratic “Blue Wall,” as the Sun Belt is sliding. Crucially crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory, these Midwestern and Northeastern states could hold the secret to Harris’s road to the White House. However, initial accounts show that Trump has taken meager leads in several spheres. Harris’s campaign finds a problematic situation since experts observe that she has not yet matched Democratic expectations in these states’ metropolitan and suburban areas.
“We know we have work to do, but these races are far from over,” a Harris campaign insider said with wary hope. The largest cities are still tallying votes, and we are sure they will show significant figures once those counts are finalized.
Is the Gender Divide in This Election Narrowing?
A batch of exit poll data sheds light on the gender dynamics in this race and reveals some surprises as the night goes on. Men are leaning toward Trump; most women are predictably supporting Harris. However, compared to the 57% of women who voted for Biden in 2020, 54% of women supporting Harris is lower. This minor drop could indicate a change; however, it is still too early to determine the degree of importance.
Commenting on these changes, a Harris campaign adviser stated, “Although the gender divide has dominated American politics in recent years, tonight we are seeing some movement on that front. Though it’s a crucial statistic we’re monitoring, our numbers among women are still robust.
Pollsters warn that these numbers are preliminary and usually change as more ballots are tallied. Still, the Harris campaign may be brutal if Democrats have truly lost ground with women voters.
Will Voter Turnout in 2024 Eclipse the Record Set in 2020?
One thing is abundantly evident as the country waits for final results: voter turnout is once more skyrocketing toward historical highs. Estimates suggest it could surpass the 65.9% turnout in 2020, a mark of significant public participation in what both contenders have defined as a pivotal election. Earlier in the evening, Trump said, “The stakes couldn’t be higher,” a comment Harris echoed in recent campaign rallies.
Reportedly, the atmosphere at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago watch party is festive as his supporters celebrate his expected victories. Tension is muscular on Howard University’s campus, where Harris supporters are also gathering. One kid attending the ceremony said, “We’re hopeful even if we’re nervous. For the nation, this is a historic event; we think Kamala can yet pull through.
How Long Will It Take to Get the Final Tallies?
The race might finally depend on late returns from important Great Lakes cities, where counting is expected to extend into the next several days. Key battlegrounds frequently swing one direction once counts are finished in close races, and for now, those movements look to benefit the Republicans. Given present patterns, Trump might once more be named president-elect.
Both campaigns will closely observe these returns in the following hours while the country awaits the official decision on its future president under bated breath.
