With Canada seeming to separate itself from Mexico in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s warning of a 25% tariff on both nations unless they increase border security with the United States, North America is seeing fresh tensions.
Citing higher rates of drug smuggling and illegal crossings along the southern border, Canadian officials have been quick to point out differences between their northern border and Mexico’s southern border with the US. Mexico, in turn, has reacted harshly to Canada’s rhetoric, charging its north neighbour of eroding the cooperative spirit.
In what ways is Canada handling border concerns?
Canadian officials underlined during a press conference that their border security issues varied greatly from those of Mexico. One insider stated, “Drug smuggling and unlawful crossings are much higher at the southern border,” noting Mexico acts as a “back door” for Chinese investment in North America.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reflected similar ideas in a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. According to Canada’s US ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, “Trudeau informed Trump that the northern border is vastly different than the Mexican border.”
Representing Canada’s most populous province, Ontario Premier Doug Ford expressed anger at what he considered to be an unjust US grouping of Canada and Mexico. Given the variances across the two borders, lumping Canada and Mexico together on border security is the most insulting thing I have heard from the US, Ford added.
How Is Mexico Reacting to the Position of Canada?
Elected in October as the first female leader of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum challenged the language used by Canada. “Mexico deserves respect, particularly among its trading partners,” Sheinbaum added.
She also made a pointed cultural comment: “Canada could only wish they had the cultural riches Mexico has.” She also highlighted Canada’s societal problems with fentanyl usage.
A record fentanyl seizure—1,500 tablets worth an estimated $400 million—that her government claimed as evidence of Mexico’s dedication to border security strengthened Sheinbaum’s comments. “We repeat that Mexico’s posture is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and peoples,” Sheinbaum said.
What is the rift in trade relations?
Canada has aimed to match itself more closely with the US in trade policy, especially in opposing China. In October, Canada declared a 25% charge on Chinese steel and aluminium and put a 100% tariff on electric vehicles produced there. However, Mexican officials still need to set comparably high levies, which has angered Canadian officials.
“Mexico’s approach to trade with China is alarming,” said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has advocated separate bilateral trade treaties between Canada, the US, and Mexico. “They’ve had an opportunity to fix these concerns for years, and they just don’t want to,” Ontario’s Ford said, reflecting similar ideas.
Trudeau cautioned that “we may have to look at other options if the country doesn’t address China trade,” even if he underlined Canada’s preference for Mexico to stay part of a united North American economic bloc.
What financial consequences follow from this divide?
Economic analysts are focusing on Canada’s growing separation from Mexico. Marta Leardi-Anderson, executive director of the Cross-Border Institute at the University of Windsor, pointed out the value of US commerce to Ontario. In 2023, the province’s US trade reached more than C$493 billion ($350 billion).
“Ontario’s economic dependence on the US is rather significant,” Leardi-Anderson remarked. “This is the reason comments from Ford and others show a defensive posture regarding Canada’s trade priorities.”
Mexico has noticed the burden. Mexico’s lead trade negotiator, Gutierrez Romano, found Canada’s language contentious. In an interview, Romano remarked, “It is not logical to be split against the United States.”
Are Historical Ties Between Canada and Mexico Under Strain?
Canada and Mexico have been long-standing allies for much of their 85-year relationship. Nonetheless, experts agree that the present is a low point. One analyst noted, “It is not a good time in the bilateral relationship between Canada and Mexico.”
President Sheinbaum claims Mexico’s status as an equal partner to avoid confrontation with Trump and Trudeau. The analyst said, “She wants to convey that her country should be respected; she would not fall for provocations.”
Sheinbaum has repeatedly emphasized her will to defend Mexico and her people. “I always will defend Mexico and Mexicans’ rights, including those based in the United States,” she said on her campaigning route.
What Do the Figures Tell Regarding the Two Borders?
US border numbers indicate a considerable difference between its northern and southern borders. Comparatively to almost 21,000 pounds at the south of the border, US border officials captured 43 pounds (19.5 kg) of fentanyl at the north of the frontier from October 2023 until September 2024. With almost two million crossings compared to approximately 200,000 at the northern border, migrant interactions were likewise disproportionately more significant along the Mexican border.
After Trump’s unexpected tariff announcements, Canada promised to improve border security. Meanwhile, Mexico has instituted more roadblocks and more officers to help reduce drug smuggling and migration. These initiatives have helped to cause a dramatic decline in crossings at the US-Mexico border, which had hit record highs earlier under the Biden government.
Why Do the Economic Stakes Here Exude Such Highness?
Each of the three nations depends on North American trade for its economy. Mexico, Canada, and China account for more than a third of US imports and exports, supporting millions of American jobs.
With imports worth $430 billion yearly, around 75% of Canada’s exports go to the US. With imports of $480 billion, Mexico is the US’s most significant commercial partner.
Notwithstanding these links, tensions remain high. The divide between Canada and Mexico could define the economic scene of North America as the trade agreement is scheduled for renegotiation in 2026.
