As the Conservative Party edges closer to selecting its next leader, the race between the final three candidates has intensified. With just two places up for grabs, the internal battle has become a fierce contest of intrigue, strategy, and psychological warfare. Who will emerge victorious and face the party members in the showdown?
What Does the Sprint Finish to the Starting Blocks Look Like?
This is not a race to the finish line but rather a sprint to secure a place in the starting blocks of the final leadership contest. Its members will choose the future leader of the Conservative Party, but only after Conservative MPs narrow the field down to two candidates. With the final selection of the pair happening on Wednesday afternoon, tensions are running high behind the scenes.
The contest is brimming with intrigue, plotting, phone calls, hushed conversations, guesswork, and whispers of underhand tactics. One Conservative MP summed up the situation:
“We are pushing towards quite the season finale.”
Who Are the Three Candidates, and What Do They Need to Secure Their Tickets?
Three candidates left in the race: James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, and Kemi Badenoch. However, only two will earn the coveted “golden tickets” to the showdown with the party members.
The standout moment from Tuesday’s round of voting was James Cleverly’s surge into the lead. He didn’t just edge ahead; he soared, receiving 39 votes—a figure even his team found surprisingly high. His success is attributed to his strong conference speech last week and his ability to attract MPs who had previously backed former Cabinet Minister Mel Stride.
With 121 votes available (120 after accounting for Rishi Sunak’s abstention), Cleverly is only two votes shy of the 41 required to guarantee a spot in the final two. As one MP put it:
“Cleverly is nearly there, assuming he doesn’t go backward.”
Who Will Win the Battle for Second Place?
The real drama now centers on the second-place battle between Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch. Jenrick, who managed to secure 31 votes in the latest round, slipped slightly, losing two votes compared to the previous round. Conversely, Badenoch gained two votes, bringing her tally to 30—just one vote behind Jenrick.
Adding to the suspense is that 20 votes are now up for grabs following the elimination of former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat. In a contest with just 120 MPs voting, 20 votes is significant. As one Team Jenrick insider confidently stated:
“James is an irrelevance now. It’s all a battle between us and Kemi’s team.”
They further elaborated:
“Tom’s supporters are closer to our side than hers. We’ll be ahead in the end.”
Despite this bravado, Jenrick’s camp likely feels the pressure after slipping from the top spot.
What Psychological Tactics Are at Play in This Race?
The psychology of the race cannot be ignored. While outward confidence is a necessity, the reality of losing momentum can be unsettling. While disappointed that their candidate didn’t perform better, Team Badenoch remains hopeful. They believe some of Tugendhat’s supporters may favor their side over Jenrick’s, particularly after Jenrick’s controversial remarks last week.
Jenrick had claimed that British special forces were “killing rather than capturing terrorists” due to the European Convention on Human Rights. He also came under fire for using footage in a campaign video of a comrade of Tugendhat’s, who later died. A Badenoch supporter remarked:
“Rob is in trouble.”
Badenoch’s supporters are banking on this controversy swaying undecided MPs in her favor.
How Will Party Members Influence the Final Decision?
Ultimately, the final decision lies in the hands of Conservative Party members, who will vote between the final two candidates. This dynamic shapes MP strategies as they consider who they want as a leader and who is likelier to win favor with the membership.
ConservativeHome’s influential website states that James Cleverly could beat Robert Jenrick in a member vote, while Kemi Badenoch could defeat Cleverly. The strategic implications of this are not lost on MPs, with ConservativeHome noting:
“If MPs want to stop Cleverly from winning, backing Badenoch seems their best option. And if they want to stop Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick beckons.”
The party members’ preferences are adding an extra layer of tension to the MPs’ decision-making process. As one Badenoch ally put it:
“What will members say if they have to vote for two people they didn’t want? It’ll be like Liz and Rishi all over again.”
This refers to the 2022 contest, where members were frustrated with the final Liz Truss vs. Rishi Sunak pairing, having preferred a showdown between Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch.
What's at Stake in This Leadership Contest?
With so much at stake, the next few hours will be critical for the candidates and their supporters. Rumors of “jiggery-pokery” continue to swirl, and there are claims that tactical voting and backroom deals could still shift the outcome. Team Badenoch is playing hardball, emphasizing their candidate’s popularity with the party membership. However, they know that not all MPs are eager to see her become a leader.
The outcome of this leadership contest could have lasting implications for the future direction of the Conservative Party. After a disastrous general election defeat in July, this leadership battle represents the party’s most significant moment since that calamitous result.
As the clock ticks down, all eyes are on who will make it to the final two and what that will mean for the party’s future. The stakes could not be higher.
