As the road to the White House intensifies, Pennsylvania remains the most crucial battleground for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with its 19 electoral votes potentially deciding the next U.S. president.Â
Why Is Pennsylvania the Battleground That Defines Elections?
We all know the White House is located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but the natural highway to the presidency is through Pennsylvania. This category five state is recognized to play a crucial role in the United States presidential elections. The keystone state has 19 electoral votes essential in the closely fought battlegrounds for presidential contests. Leading experts who forecast elections have suggested that the candidate who triumphs in Pennsylvania is more likely than not to become President.
“It is the largest and most crucial of all swing states.” said a former U.S. House of Representatives member representing northeastern Pennsylvania between 2007 and 2011.
What Makes Pennsylvania So Important?
The name “Keystone State” could not be more appropriate for Pennsylvania because they may have the key that unlocks the presidency. A similar trend is observed for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, who will consider the 2024 race paramount. Should the Democrats win Pennsylvania, the remaining states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and the congressional district in Nebraska will be enough to make Harris the next President. At the same time, if the Republicans win back Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Trump can regain his presidency.
Pennsylvania is Pennsylvania: if it is excluded from the forecast, all the states collectively give Trump a slim chance of victory. While it is easy for him to flip all the states that went to Joe Biden during last year’s election, he would need to flip at least three of them—a very steep hill to climb, especially given how sharply divided the country is along party lines. Indeed, similar to previous elections, both campaigns know that entrance into Pennsylvania means entrance into all of Pennsylvania, and a potential victory may mean victory for the entire election.
How Does Pennsylvania Represent a Microcosm of America?
Not only is Pennsylvania the most valuable swing state, but it is also arguably one of the most representative states of the U.S. in its entirety. The state follows the economic, political, and even demographic developments and changes on a national level. While Pennsylvania was once a center for manufacturing in the United States, it is now transitioning to becoming a state for more modern industries, with its enormous energy sector driven mainly by the quantity of oil shale available in the state. Agriculture also remains the critically important sector, which remains one of the leading industries in the state, being second in importance.
Whites comprise most of the populace, though the immigrants are quickly increasing their numbers in the state. With lengthy histories bulldozed and reshaped by urban renewal, Allentown, which once was a blue-collar factory town that became the love topic of Lou Reed, is now home to a majority-Hispanic population. Blacks make up 12% of the population in Pennsylvania and nearly equal to 13% of the population in the United States.
What Is the Urban-Rural Divide in Pennsylvania Politics?
That’s why the state’s political situation is as varied as its economy. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the state’s two most prominent metropolitan places and consistently support the Democratic party. However, large parts of the country between major cities are inhabited by Republicans in large numbers. That city block, home to many suburbs that traditionally voted Republican, is slowly starting to lean toward the Democrats.
This dynamic has led to the famous political quip: I have never heard anyone feel that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in the middle.
These intricate political current accounts have put Pennsylvania at more or less an even keel in presidential elections. In Biden’s victory in 2020, he secured the state with around 80 000 popular vote difference; in Trump’s victory in 2016, he had around 40 000 difference from Clinton. Since then, they added, no candidate has repeated such a showing in the state except President Barack Obama in his resounding 2008 victory.
Why Is the Current Race in Pennsylvania So Close?
The closer the election of 2024 comes, the more polls show that the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is very tight in Pennsylvania. The current poll aggregator shows that Harris leads by less than one percent – an advantage that has barely changed throughout the year. They both invest staggering amounts of cash into Pennsylvania and are fully aware of such states’ value.
Advertising through television in the state is more significant than in any swing state, and both candidates are known to visit the state frequently. Harris has made Pennsylvania the center of her campaign. She formally presented her running mate, Tim Walz, at a rally in Philadelphia. She spent days rehearsing for her presidential debate in Pittsburgh and gave a decisive economic speech in the same city only two weeks ago.
On the Republican side, Trump, on January 30, had a massive rally in Butler, despite the January shoe bomber who attempted to assassinate him back in July. He then made trips to Biden’s hometown of Scranton and Reading.
How Are Surrogates and Local Politicians Mobilizing Support?
When Harris and Trump are not in the state, they use stand-ins for the energy they want to kick. A former Pennsylvania Governor explained this strategy: “A candidate cannot go in a county to address 1200 persons.” The state is too big. There’s no time. That, to that extent, is the purpose of surrogates – to blind a man and confuse him enough so that he forgets about the extremity of the situation and what he’s doing.
The current Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania, well endorsed in the area, has championed Harris’ hard follow. He was earlier regarded as a contender for Harris’s vice-presidential pick, a formidably eloquent orator, and indispensable for galvanizing the base.
Harris’s strategy for Pennsylvania is to secure the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and carry enough suburban areas to cancel Trump’s hold on the rural counties. This means entirely targeting the middle and going as far as courting Republicans, including more than 160,000 who voted for Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, during the Republican primary earlier this year.
How Is Harris Reaching Across Party Lines?
A former Republican Senate staffer has taken the mantle of the “Haley Voters for Harris” campaign in Pennsylvania. “I assume what these people want to hear is how both the Kamala Harris record and the Kamala Harris potential are, for the most part, pretty mainstream—that she is not some liberal lunatic,” he said.
He explained that the Harris campaign has been the most aggressive one involving Republicans, which he has observed within a generation. Pandering to moderate Republicans might be especially important in such a contest.
How Is Trump's Ground Game Mobilizing Voters?
For Trump, the means of winning the state is to secure maximum votes in such part of the state. His talking points are about the new voters and registrants, which base officials admit are the core of their campaign.
This may be a heartening strategy that may be working. Democrats remain more numerous than Republicans in A., but the difference is only a few hundred thousand people, the smallest in 23 years.
He is also courting blue-collar union voters and young Black men who constitute voting demographics that would have otherwise supported the Democrats. A conservative activist pointed out that Trump has been receiving more support from black American men across the United States, and he thinks that the same case applies to Philadelphia, too. “If you can convince them that he speaks more clearly to the things that concern them, it can at least start to provide a base for Republicans in Philadelphia,” she said.
Will Pennsylvania's Election Results Face Delays?
As we know, the counting process of votes in Pennsylvania may take days, as it happened in 2020, with the forthcoming election in 2024. Haupt said that the COVID pandemic saw over two million mail-in ballots in that election, and the winner was only declared four days later. Although fewer votes by mail are likely to occur in the current year, the state has received 217,000 complete ballots that, per law, can only be processed on election night.
Also, more than 27,000 military and overseas ballots were mailed out; these could be critical votes in a toss-up. If the vote margins are close, it leads to a recount, legal battles, and extended vote counting.
One campaign advisor urged patience: “I do not think that is going to take a couple of days after to get a count.” And if it is very close, it means we are going to have contests and recounts. So everybody has to put in some effort.”
What Lies Ahead in the Final Stretch?
As both campaigns start to turn on the screws this last month in states like Pennsylvania, it is evident that the Keystone State will play a pivotal role in deciding the winner of the presidency. From street-level organization to rallying the moderate base, it is still a long month of campaigning for Pennsylvania. Therefore, the candidate who captures this traditional swing state can assuredly capture the nation’s highest office.
